Free Pick Champions League: Barcellona – PSG

I watched first leg and as normal, i was shocked to see a complete domination by PSG.
PSG was much more better in terms of quality, shape and occasions but it was more or less a month ago and i think that a bad night can happen to any team.

Barcelona is called to a miracle but imho they are in better shape that 3 weeks ago and also the last results in la Liga showed that they are better (4 wins, including a crucial one, in away, on Atletico Madrid field for 1-2; 15 goals scored and 4 allowed in 4 games). Luis Enrique (for me not a big surprise) said that he’ll not be the trainer of Barcelona next year but, imho, this will not be a problem for this team right now.
For tonight there are some doubts in terms of the module. Luis Enrique played always with 4-3-3 but in last period he’s trying also a strange 3-4-3 who could be used tonight because they have to start in an aggressive way if they want be able to produce a little hope.

PSG, as i said, played a really amazing game in the frist leg and now is also at -3 by the top position in L1.
For tonight they can start with a really big advantage but at Camp Nou, imho, everything can happens.
Motta is in big doubt and probably will not play. Di Maria is in the same situation of Motta and also Rabiot but in this trio, the last one, is the most likely to play. The striker will be Cavani for sure.

For me Barcelona will win this one.

Barcelona ML @1.60  (6-1)

Free Pick Youth League: Benfica u19 – Napoli u19

Benfica is for sure a team with much more quality than Napoli.
I watched the entire first leg played in Naples and ended 2-3 for the away team and i can surely said that Benfica here is a better team and as wrote by mikewillbetit they have a better roster today with the add of 4 players.
In first leg Benfica scored two goals and dominated the match for at least 60-65 minutes. Napoli was unable to create big occasions and they committed a lot of fouls with a first red card and a second late red card in the final minutes.
In 10 vs 11 something changed and Napoli started to push a lot and create big occasions (a lot on free kicks and corner kicks) and in a crazy 6 minutes they was able to draw and impact on 2-2. But after just a minute by the draw they committed another big mistakes (always in 10 vs 11) in defense and allowed an easy goal to Benfica for the final 2-3.
After that they lose another player for another red card.

Of course after that they played 3 games each. Benfica lose in away against D. Kiev for 2-1 and again at home for 1-2. In last one they won against Besiktas for 0-3 in away. So they lose just against D. Kiev (first in table).
Napoli, instead, draw for 2-2 at home against Besiktas and was able to let alive a little chance to pass the turn with a big away win against Besiktas for 0-1. In last turn they lose at home against D. Kiev for 0-2.

No other to add, for me Besiktas is a better team than Napoli and it’s true that for them also a point could be good but if Napoli will start to push by first minute they can have some occasions in counterattacks.
So i’m on Napoli side of course, but i want to take this over line.

Over 2,5 @1.50  (2-0)

Free Pick Champions League: Bayern Monaco – PSV

Bayern is in a must win situation after the win over Rostov for 5-0 at home and the bad L against Atletico Madrid for 1-0 in away.
Also in Bundesliga the team of Ancelotti isn’t showing their best form with 2 consecutive draws against Koln (1-1 at home) and against Frankfurt (2-2 in away) but this is an important match and i think that they will back on track and will play a strong game.
For tonight only two absences for Ancelotti: Ribery and Dorsch.

PSV is a good team but imho not at the same level of Bayern of course.
They lose first game of CL against Atletico Madrid for 0-1 at home and draw the second one in away against Rostov for 2-2.
Also in Eredivisie they aren’t is super shape with 2 consecutive draws (like Bayern) against Heerenveen (1-1 in away) and Heracles (1-1 at home).
For tonight they will have out Hendrix and Locadia.

For me quality, home field advantage and also a big motivation to back on track on their pitch are all on home side.

Bayern AH -1,5 @1,73  (4-1)

Free Pick Youth League: Napoli Youth – Besiktas Youth

Napoli is the worst team in this group and in fact they lose both matches played. The first one in away against Dynamo Kyiv for 4-1 and the second one, at home, against Benfica for 2-3.
Especially the second one was a crazy match because Benfica dominated Napoli and Napoli was also in 10 man after the red card of Granata. But after the red card, in a crazy way, Napoli back on track and scored twice with De Simone.
A lot of enthusiasm but few seconds later the 2-2, Benfica scored again for the final 2-3 with a huge mistake by Napoli’s defense.
In the final also the same De Simone was ejected.
So two important missings for Napoli today.

Besiktas is third with 2 points (2 draws against Dynamo and Benfica for 0-0 and 3-3) but they showed that they are, more or less, at the same level of these two teams.
They will play again in away but honestly i think that the quality of this team is better then home side.
And they have more experience because they played the Youth League also last year.

I take my shot on away side.

Besiktas +0 @1,85  (2-2)

Champions League: Roma – Manchester City

Hi guys for tonight i like too much to pick Roma – Manchester City game.

Obviously all know that this match is crucial for both sides but Roma need to take 3 points because City is in advantage and can pass also with a draw. So Garcia said in press conference that his team will play in offense by first minute and all the team is focused to score a goal more their rival.
The Olimpico stadium will be full and this is THE match in Rome.
For tonight will not play for sure Daniele De Rossi because he played really bad agaisnt Sassuolo and Garcia has choice for Keita (a lot of experience in this type of games). The rest of lineup will be the strongest with De Sanctis; Maicon, Manolas, Astori, Holebas; Pjanic, Nainggolan, Keita; Gervinho, Totti, Ljaijc.

Manchester City arrive to Rome with 2 results on 3 but with two key absences like Kun Aguero and Yaya Tourè, replaced most likely by Lampard and Dzeko. City has a great run in last period with a great comeback in PL where now is just at -3 by Chelsea (more or less 4 weeks ago they was at -9).
But in Champions League they aren’t so strong. In fact they loss in away against Bayern (1-0) and draw against Cska (2-2) and also they draw at home for 1-1 against Roma.
Also in last 3 years this team failed always to pass the group and also in all matches played against italian teams they never won in away.

So for all these reasons i think that a DC @1,45 for Roma or a DNB @1,85 for home side is a good bet.

Champions League Giornata 2

1 DNB o Under 1,5 gol ospite per:

Zenit (4-2-3-1): Lodygin – Criscito, Garay, Lombaerts, Smolnikov – Garcia, Witsel – Danny, Shatov, Hulk – Kerzhakov
Monaco (4-4-2): Subasic – Abdennour, Echiejile, Raggi, Fabinho – Joao Moutinho, Dirar, Ocampos, Carrasco – Berbatov, Traoré

Over 1,5 o Over 2,5 per:

Anderlecht (4-2-3-1):  Roef- Deschacht, Nuytinck, Mbemba, Heylen- Defour, Tielemans- Praet, Acheampong, Suarez- Mitrovic
Borussia Dortmund (4-3-3): Weidenfeller- Piszczek, Subotic, Papastathopoulos, Durm- Kehl, Mkhitaryan, Grobkreutz, Bender-  Jojić, Ramos, Kagawa

Under 2,5 o Under 3,5 per:

Atletico Madrid (4-2-3-1): Moya- Juanfran, Godin, Miranda, Siqueira- Gabi, Thiago- Koke, Griezmann, Raul Garcia, Mandzukic
Juventus (3-5-2): Buffon- Caceres, Bonucci, Chiellini- Lichsteiner, Pogba, Marchisio, Asamoah, Evra- Tevez, Llorente

1 per:

Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Szczesny- Chambers, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Gibbs- Arteta, Ramsey- Alexis, Ozil, Cazorla- Welbeck
Galatasaray (4-3-1-2): Muslera- Telles, Chedjou, Semih Kaya, Veysel Sari- Melo, Dzemaili, Selçuk İnan- Sneijder- B. Ylmaz, Pandev

Over 2 per:

Basilea (4-3-3): Vaclik- Callá, Schar, Samuel, Safari- Fei, Xhaka, Zuffi- Streller, Giovanni Sio, Gashi
Liverpool (4-3-2-1): Mignolet- Manquillo, Lovren, Sakho, Moreno- Henderson, Gerrard, Coutinho- Lallana, Sterling- Balotelli

Under 3,5 per:

Bayer Leverkusen (4-4-2): Leno- Jedvaj, Donati, Spahic, Wendell- Bellarabi, Rolfes, Reinartz, Bender- Kiebling, Heung-Min Son
Benfica (4-4-2): Moraes- Pereira, Luisao, Eliseu, Jardel- Perez, Gaitan, Salvio, Samaris- Talisca, Lima

2 o No Goal per:

Ludogorets (4-3-3): Borjan- Alexandrov, Moti, Minev, Caicara- Dyakov, Espinho, Marcelinho- Abalo, Misidjan, Bezyak
Real Madrid (4-4-2): Casillas- Arbeloa, Pepe, Sergio Ramos, Marcelo- Bale, Kroos, Modric, James- Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema

X2 per:

Malmoe (4-4-2): Olsen- Tinnerholm, Johansson, Helander, Konate- Kroon, Halsti, Adu, Forsberg- Eriksson, Rosenberg
Olympiakos (4-2-3-1): Roberto- Elabdellaoui, Botia, Masuaku, Abidal- Ndinga, Fuster- Kasami, Domínguez, Afellay- Mitroglou

Champions League: La Finale

Arriva il momento decisivo della stagione, la finale di Champions. Quest’anno sarà un derby, quello di Madrid, tra il sorprendete Atletico di Diego Pablo Simeone, campione della Liga, ed i galactios di Carletto Ancelotti.

L’Atletico arriva al match dopo aver festeggiato la Liga, vinta sul campo del Barcellona con il punteggio di 1-1, mostrando di essere una squadra solida soprattutto mentalmente, viste le uscite (dopo appena 20 minuti) di due dei suoi gioielli (Diego Costa ed Arda Turan). Entrambi dovrebbero farcela per stasera anche se, ovviamente, le condizioni non saranno ottimali.

Il Real, dopo un’ottima annata coronata dalla vittoria in Copa del Rey ai danni del Barcellona e dopo una grandissima vittoria nella semifinale di ritorno contro il Bayern (4-0), arriva a questa partita con Ronaldo e Bale recuperati dai rispettivi acciacchi, ma anche l0ro non al 100%, mentre forti dubbi rimangono ancora sulla presenza di Benzema (potrebbe sostituirlo Isco, spostato più avanti) e Pepe (potrebbe sostituirlo Varane).

Onestamente mi aspetto un match molto bloccato, sia per l’atteggiamento tattico dei colchoneros, sia perchè nessuno vorrà commettere il primo errore che, in match del genere, spesse volte può risultare decisivo.


News dell’ultim’ora: Benzema recuperato ed in campo per il Real Madrid; Diego Costa recuperato ed in campo, Arda Turan non convocato per l’Atletico Madrid.

Quindi opto per: Under 2,5 @1,70 o Under 3,5 @1,25 o Real Madrid Coppa in mano @1,60